Johnson, Giants vie for another win over reeling Cards
Baseball Betting Lines
06/30/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ageless lefty Randy Johnson seeks a third straight win and a fifth in six decisions tonight, when the San Francisco Giants visit Busch Stadium for game two of four against the host St. Louis Cardinals.
The Giants won the opener, 10-0, Monday on the strength of a pitching gem - a two-hit shutout from reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
Now 8-2, Lincecum gave up just a bloop single to Rick Ankiel in the fifth inning and a double to Albert Pujols in the seventh. He fanned eight and didn't walk a batter, tossing his third complete game in his last four starts. It was the third shutout of his young career.
Meanwhile, Johnson, a California native who'll be 46 in September, was 3-4 on the season after a 9-6 loss to the New York Mets on May 16 and a subsequent no-decision against Seattle six days later.
He's rebounded nicely in the last month-plus, however, picking up career wins 299 and 300 on May 27 and June 4, then adding Nos. 301 and 302 on June 13 and 24.
In the four triumphs, Johnson has allowed just four earned runs in 26 innings while walking four batters and striking out 16.
Most recently, he went seven innings and gave up six hits and a run en route to a 6-3 victory against Oakland in his last start.
Lifetime against the Cardinals, Johnson is 6-7 in 15 starts with a 4.12 earned run average in 102 2/3 innings.
For St. Louis, right-hander Chris Carpenter will try to stay perfect for his career against the Giants.
Now 34 years old, the New Hampshire native and former first-round draft pick is 3-0 in five lifetime starts against San Francisco, posting a 3.03 earned run average in 35 2/3 innings.
Win No. 3 came May 30 in California, where he allowed six hits and two runs in six innings of a 6-2 St. Louis triumph.
Carpenter has split four decisions since, beating Cincinnati and Kansas City while losing to Cleveland and the New York Mets. He's also 3-0 at home this season, allowing just seven hits and a single earned run in 21 innings at Busch.
Elsewhere in Monday's game, Travis Ishikawa hit a three-run homer, Edgar Renteria went 2-for-4 with three RBI and Juan Uribe had two hits -- including a solo homer -- for San Francisco, which has won four of its last six.
Brad Thompson (2-4) was touched for four runs on seven hits in a six-inning start for the Cardinals, who have dropped five of six.
The Giants won two of three games from the Cardinals at AT&T Park back in May and have taken five of the past six meetings in this series.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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